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Universidad de Salamanca
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Diapostiva 3

Spandam

Spandam

 

 

 

Executive summary
Spain faces several demographic challenges: ageing population, outmigration, low fertility rate, immigration from outside Europe, and unequal internal migrations flows within Spain. A particular concern is the population decline which affects most notably rural areas, small and middle-size towns and cities in central and northern Spain. The management of areas affected by depopulation creates difficulties for public and private sectors. As a result of weak local markets, services become underutilised, poorly maintained and often even unviable. As local living conditions and quality of life deteriorate, unemployment rises, skilled labour becomes scarce and social disparities widen. All this erodes the attractiveness of a location and accentuates a self-reinforcing downward spiral of demographic decline. Most acute are the social challenges caused by depopulation: migratory movements of young (and to a large extent female) working-age population to great cities leaves behind an elderly population, which may suffer from loneliness and they are often forced to leave the area once they need more intense care. Other public services affected are education, childcare, social housing, and other types of social care. Finally, Spanish immigration is mostly to cities and cannot compensate for depopulation and ageing in rural parts. Social protection services are related to demographic trends and must play a fundamental role in reducing inequalities and promoting social cohesion as a requirement for balanced and sustainable development.

The main objective of the project is to develop a simulation tool (small scale prototype) that can guide decision-making and public policies aiming to achieve a balanced and sustainable demographic, socioeconomic and environmental development in areas affected by depopulation. The tool will allow simulating the effects of different public policies and private initiatives on the main local development indicators and their effect on the attractiveness of the area to retain resident population and attract new migrants as well as potential investors. The tool will support the design of policies that effectively counter the current reality of the demographic imbalances in Spain and its negative dynamics for territorial, economic, and social cohesion in view of ever scarcer public resources and the health and social ramifications of the ongoing COVID pandemic. It is aimed at experts and advisors in private consultancies and public agencies and institutions providing policy advice for different tiers of government.

The modelling strategy of SPANDAM focuses on the interactions (feedbacks) among the components of the system (interdisciplinarity) rather than the detail of the components themselves by means of System Dynamics (SD). Dynamics of population —including migrations— have been treated by SD and several models have been generated including not only migration, but also epidemiology, transport system, etc. Our integrated model will be translated into a visual and explanatory tool of the dynamics of population in Spain, allowing users to change any value of any variable to understand its impacts on the selected indicators.

The model will allow understanding the structural causes of local development and the effects that policies and private initiatives can have on the main variables of economic, social, and environmental development over time. Specific ‘development indicators’ will allow to evaluate the attractiveness to fix population or attract migrants, as well as to detect possible imbalances or weaknesses in local development models. Finally, as public services are planned according to demand but not to an objective analysis of current and future needs of population, they are often maladjusted. In this regard, SPANDAM will allow to make simulations and show future values based on demographic trends and other variables so that policy planning is more efficient as it is driven by data adjusted to needs.

 

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